In 2025, I had a pretty complex bot trading 15m markets that made a decent chunk on a $2k investment. The bot did well for about 50 days, then some changes were announced and I lost the edge.
A few months later, I lost about 50% of what I made through the bot in a single market that I (and many others believe) was just wrongly by their stupid oracle.
IMO, Polymarket is only great when you're trading undeniable/tech backed markets backed by like the BTC etc.
When it comes to opinion markets like the political ones - if x will attack y by date - types, them you're at the mercy of the Oracle. Which is basically a bunch of whales with tons of money invested and these fucks will decide your fate and often side with their own investment based on frivolous technicalities.